演化发展经济学与新结构经济学——哪一种产业政策的理论范式更适合中国国情

国际学术界有关产业政策的研究存在着两种不同的理论范式：演化经济学和后新古典经济学,这两种不同的理论范式在发展经济学领域中表现为演化发展经济学和新结构经济学的不同。两者的产业政策基于完全不同的理论基础：技术赶超或比较优势;新结构经济学有关政府作用的理论仍是以新古典经济学的市场失败理论为基础的,而演化发展经济学则在批判市场失败理论的基础上提出了一系列的新理论。在演化发展经济学家看来,新结构经济学不适合于中等收入国家,特别是在运用于作为超大型发展中国家的中国国情时存在着严重的缺陷;即使是运用于低收入国家,也是有局限性的。事实证明,技术赶超而非比较优势战略更适合中国国情;以自主创新为核心的基础全面的价值链升级正是我国所有地方政府都面临的共同挑战,而《吉林报告》则忽视了这一关键问题。《吉林报告》的缺陷说明,聚焦于传统意义上产业部门之间区别的新结构经济学已不适应新国际分工对产业政策提出的新要求,演化发展经济学所关注的价值链特定环节、核心技术和组织能力已经成为产业政策的核心问题。因此,一个重要的问题就摆在了中国经济学界的面前：是通过新结构经济学研究中国经济发展问题,还是在演化发展经济学基础之上,针对中国作为超大型发展中国家的国情,发展一种历史和国情特定的中国经济发展理论?     

Does Nuclear Uncertainty Threaten Financial Markets? The Attention Paid to North Korean Nuclear Threats and Its Impact on South Korea's Financial Markets

We explore how investor attention paid to dangerous nuclear tests influences financial market outcomes. To measure the attention paid to North Korean nuclear threats, we introduce a weekly Google search volume index for keywords on North Korean nuclear events. Using a time‐varying structural vector autoregression model with block exogeneity restrictions, we find that investor attention paid to nuclear threats has heterogeneous effects on South Korea's stock prices across industries and over time: attention on only the first nuclear test was negatively related to the stock price index, which vanished thereafter. Moreover, the investor attention paid to the nuclear risk reduced stock prices, especially in the banking industry, during the entire sample period.     

对地方金融风险的研究：文献综述视角

地方金融风险问题越来越受到学术界的关注,但很多方面尚未达成共识。本文试图对相关文献梳理和提炼,并对当前研究热点剖析,希冀掀起新的研究热潮。     

中国农业问题形成的因素分析

中国农业存在着诸多问题,这些问题产生的原因既有自然方面的,也有社会和经济方面的。对自然的依赖、劳动对象的生理性、长生产周期、土地要素的难以替代性是中国农业问题产生的自然原因;古老的产业、弱势的地位、户籍制度等是中国农业问题产生的社含原因;农业竞争的独特性、经营方式的限定性、产品的特殊性等是中国农业问题产生的经济原因。     

云南省科技人才可持续发展研究

本文根据云南省科技人才发展的现状及存在的普遍性问题,通过对历史数据整理后进行的趋势研究,以及对国内数据的横向比较和相关变量的回归分析,并结合对企业、高校等相关机构的实地调研,总结出以产权制度为核心,包括政肩干预、供需结构性矛盾等一系列制约云南省科技人才市场化可持续发展的因素,有针对性地从完善产权激励制度、创造科技人才可持续发展的良好环境等方面,系统地提出了对策与建议.     

地方政府财政支出结构优化模型——基于我国各省、市面板数据分析

以保罗·罗默的经济增长理论为依据,推导出最优财政支出结构模型,并运用我国31个省市面板数据对模型作了实证检验,发现现阶段我国地方政府财政支出结构不尽合理,有必要对地方财政支出结构进行进一步优化,使其最大限度地促进经济增长.     

重视个人捐赠，促进慈善事业可持续发展

改革开放以来,我国慈善事业不断发展,而个人捐赠比例由于“熟人文化”,慈善机构公信力不佳,政府对慈善捐赠重视不够等原因却不断下降。转型期,政府应加大对慈善捐赠的支持力度、完善慈善组织自身建设、健全慈善捐赠相关法规、创新慈善捐赠的方式和手段,促使全社会积极参与慈善事业,使个人捐赠真正成为未来慈善事业发展的主流和基石。     

论国际技术扩散对我国外贸发展的影响

开放经济条件下,通过国际贸易、FDI等渠道带来的技术扩散,是发展中国家实现技术进步与经济增长的重要方式.文章分别从贸易量、贸易结构、贸易条件等方面讨论了国际技术扩散对我国外贸发展的影响.分析表明,国际技术扩散极大地促进了我国的外贸发展.     

An analysis of growth competitiveness

The publication of the Global Competitiveness Report 2005‐2006 by the World Economic Forum (WEF) (2005 World Economic Forum. 2005. The global competitiveness report, 2005–2006, Hampshire: Palgrave MacMillan.  [Google Scholar]) has focused attention once more upon the relative abilities of many countries to compete in world markets. This article provides an analysis and evaluation of the approach taken by the WEF in constructing its measure of international growth competitiveness, the Growth Competitiveness Index (GCI) which is used to rank countries. In particular, the study identifies three areas where the GCI is vulnerable to criticism. First, the treatment of outliers for hard data items is ambiguous and we identify alternative methods for dealing with outliers that are justifiable or even superior. Second, the crucial role of the variable utility patents in the calculation of the GCI is questioned and serious doubts concerning the use of this variable are raised. Third, the article suggests an alternative approach, based upon structural equation modeling, which should be used for the determination of weights in the index calculation process, rather than the arbitrary method adopted by the WEF.     

Questioning the empirical basis of the environmental Kuznets curve for CO2: New evidence from a panel stationarity test robust to multiple breaks and cross-dependence

This paper investigates the time series properties of per capita CO₂ emissions and per capita GDP levels for a sample of 86 countries over the period 1960-2000. For that purpose, we employ a state-of-the-art panel stationarity test which incorporates multiple shifts in level and slope, thereby controlling for cross-sectional dependence through bootstrap methods. Our analysis renders clear-cut evidence that per capita GDP levels are nonstationary for the world as a whole while per capita CO₂ is found to be regime-wise trend stationary. The analysis of country-groups shows that for Africa and Asia, per capita CO₂ is best described as nonstationary, while per capita GDP appears stationary around a broken trend. In addition, we find evidence of regime-wise trend stationarity in both variables for the country-groups consisting of America, Europe and Oceania. The results of our analysis carry important implications for the statistical modelling of the Environmental Kuznets curve for CO₂, since the differing order of integration in both variables for the world as a whole and for Africa and Asia calls into question the validity of panel cointegration techniques which assume that both variables are nonstationary and cointegrated with one another. Cointegration techniques would not be appropriate either for the case of America, Europe and Oceania which are characterised by per capita GDP and CO₂ emissions being stationary around a broken trend. Similar conclusions are reached when we analyse country-groups based on levels of development. Failure to properly characterise the time series properties of the data by not controlling for an unknown number of structural breaks and for cross-sectional dependence could be responsible for the fragility and lack of robustness surrounding the estimation of environmental Kuznets curves.